July 2026 Market Update: The Fed Is Paused, the 10-Year Is Creeping Up

The Number

The Fed held its target range at 3.50%–3.75% at the June 17 FOMC meeting, and that has not changed heading into July. SOFR is sitting at 3.64%. But the part of the curve that actually prices your loan — the 10-year Treasury — has not stayed still. It closed June around 4.38%–4.44% and has drifted up to 4.49% as of July 2, a roughly 10–11 basis point move in about a week.

Freddie Mac's 30-year PMMS ticked up to 6.49%, from 6.47% the week before. On the non-QM side, DSCR fixed pricing is holding in the 6.13%–7.50% range depending on FICO, DSCR, and LTV. Bridge capital on the strongest deals is still clearing at 5.75%–6.50%, with value-add and transitional bridge running 8.00%–10.00%.

What This Means

The Fed being on pause does not mean your rate is on pause. DSCR and permanent CRE pricing track the 10-year, not the Fed funds rate, and the 10-year has quietly given back some of June's improvement in the first days of July. It is a small move — 10 bps is not a crisis — but it is a reminder that "the Fed held" headlines do not translate directly into "your rate held."

Multifamily DSCR minimums are steady at 1.20–1.35x across most of our lender stack, with underwriters staying disciplined on durable cash flow rather than trailing rent spikes — a carryover from the vacancy and expense volatility we flagged in our June update.

Institutional capital is still deepening its allocation to private credit. That inflow is the main reason bridge spreads on top-tier stabilized collateral have compressed into the high-5% to mid-6% range even as the 10-year ticks up — more capital chasing the same paper offsets some of the benchmark movement.

Where This Leaves Borrowers

A held Fed does not mean a held rate sheet. Watch the 10-year, not the FOMC calendar, if you are timing a lock.

DSCR minimums are not loosening. 1.20–1.35x is the real floor most lenders are underwriting to this month — build your rent assumptions to clear it with room, not exactly at it.

Bridge-to-DSCR is still the cleanest playbook for value-add acquisitions, with best-in-class bridge execution in the 5.75–6.50% band for strong sponsors and clean files.

If you have a deal that needs pricing against this week's actual market — not a rate sheet from a month ago — send us the property, loan amount, FICO band, and rent roll. We run it across the live lender stack and come back with what is actually executable today.